VUCA to BANI: A World Full of Surprises

The world is full of surprises. A surprise is an event that we do not expect. Who could have predicted what would happen? Businesspeople were busy preparing their strategies for the post-COVID-19 era. They were getting ready to take off and welcome a world without COVID-19. Then, suddenly, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is a major oil producer, while Ukraine is one of the world's major food producers. The war disrupted businesses and even entire countries. Countries have been struggling to contain inflation. Currency fluctuations have become increasingly difficult to predict. At the same time, tensions have continued between the United States and China, while Saudi Arabia has also experienced tensions with the United States. This is what we mean by a world full of surprises. Globalisation has made the world increasingly interconnected and increasingly full of surprises.

VUCA evolves into BANI: Volatility creates Brittleness. Uncertainty leaves Anxiety. Complexity creates Non-linearity. Ambiguity leads to Incomprehensibility.

Volatility Creates Brittleness

Volatility brings extremely rapid change, making whatever we build increasingly brittle. Doing business can be like building a sand sculpture on the beach. No matter how carefully it is constructed, an unexpected wave can suddenly wash it away. Even a strong business foundation may only remain strong temporarily. We have seen banks collapse in the United States. Even the financial foundations of major economies, including the United Kingdom, Japan, and countries across Europe, have experienced significant disruption.

Uncertainty Creates Anxiety

Uncertainty leaves people with anxiety. Anxiety influences businesspeople when they are making decisions about investment, expansion, partnerships, and many other business activities. Even game theory, which offers ways of understanding probabilities, becomes increasingly difficult to calculate when probabilities themselves are difficult to determine. The more difficult probabilities become to identify and calculate, the greater the anxiety.

This anxiety requires empathy to create togetherness and collaboration. The United States needs to empathise with China, China needs to empathise with Europe, and vice versa. Imagine what would happen if China's economy declined significantly. The impact would extend to countries throughout the world, including the United States and Europe. A business ecosystem based on relationships between countries is therefore essential.

Complexity Creates Non-linearity

Complexity requires businesspeople to see both the content and the context of what is happening around them. This leads to a non-linear understanding of business—one that is difficult to formulate or calculate. When businesspeople think non-linearly, they are better able to understand complexity. Non-linear thinking also helps them distinguish between the content and the context of a business problem or opportunity.

Ambiguity Creates Incomprehensibility

Ambiguity makes businesspeople hesitant when making decisions. This hesitation arises because the data and information available as a basis for decision-making are often incomplete. Businesspeople therefore need to become accustomed to making decisions even when the available data and information are limited. These limitations mean that businesspeople must become accustomed to making decisions without always having a comprehensive understanding of the situation. This is what makes the business environment increasingly incomprehensible.

A Whole Mindset for a World Full of Surprises

A Whole Mindset is needed to compete successfully in a world full of surprises. A Whole Mindset enables businesspeople to examine business problems and opportunities from multiple perspectives. Business can be understood as politic. Business can also be logic. Business must be ethic. Business can also be mystic, offering illusions much like a magician performing a trick.

When businesspeople rely only on analytical thinking, they may become increasingly anxious because business is becoming more non-linear and incomprehensible. Anxiety can be reduced when business is also understood as politic, through various agreements reached through negotiation. Anxiety can also be reduced when businesspeople have empathy and therefore place ethics at the forefront of doing business. Understanding business as mystic can increase businesspeople’s confidence because unusual creative ideas may offer possibilities for solving problems and capturing various business opportunities.

A Whole Mindset creates synergy between the rationality and irrationality required to conduct business in the BANI era. A world full of surprises requires businesspeople to examine problems and opportunities through a rational perspective that understands Business is Logic, as well as irrational perspectives that understand Business is Politic, Business is Ethic, and Business is Mystic. The synergy between rationality and irrationality is essential in a world full of surprises. So, how about you? Do you already have these four different ways of understanding business in a world full of surprises?

If you rely only on rational thinking, you may find it difficult to adapt to an era characterised by constant surprises. You need to learn to think irrationally as well, not to replace your rationality, but to complement it in business.